Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
