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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.